WAS JAPANESE GROWTH EXPORT-LED

In three periods of its modern economic history (1913-37, 1952-73, and 1973-90), Japan grew up to twice as rapidly as did other major indust rialized countries. The paper investigates whether growth in these yea rs was export-led. The results of five very different tests suggest th at domestic forces rather than foreign demand propelled longer-run gro wth. This was particularly so in the high-growth period of 1952-73. Ex ports may, however, have been crucial in initiating several cyclical u pswings.