THE ABILITY OF ACTIVE VERSUS PASSIVE COPING TASKS TO PREDICT FUTURE BLOOD-PRESSURE LEVELS IN NORMOTENSIVE MEN AND WOMEN

Casual blood pressure (BP) after a 2-year follow-up interval was deter mined in 40 normotensive men and women (20 Blacks and 20 Whites), who had been initially tested for cardiovascular responses to a variety of active and passive coping tasks, including active speech, passive spe ech, reaction time, and forehead cold presser tasks. Stepwise multiple regression analyses were used to identify the best model for predicti ng follow-up BP. Average systolic blood pressure (SEP) level during co ld presser stress was the single most powerful predictor of casual SEP over 2 years, even after controlling for initial resting SEP. Other p redictors of follow-up SEP were initial SEP, parental history of hyper tension, and heart rate and SEP during passive speech (final model R(2 ) = .78). For follow-up diastolic blood pressure (DBP), the only signi ficant predictors were initial DBP and male gender. These results cont ribute to a growing body of literature that suggests that cardiovascul ar measures observed during stressors have predictive validity above a nd beyond that of traditional predictor variables.