UNITED-NATIONS INTERVENTION AND RECURRING CONFLICT

The end of the cold war has signaled a dramatic increase in the number and forms of United Nations (UN) intervention into ongoing conflicts. Yet, this larger UN role has not always translated into success. Shor t-term failures are evident, but the long-term effects of UN efforts a re not readily apparent. We explore this longer-term impact by examini ng the incidence of recurring conflict between state dyads following a crisis. Overall, UN intervention has proved ineffective in inhibiting , delaying, or lessening the severity of future conflicts, independent of the level of violence in the precipitating crisis, the relative ca pabilities of the two states, the states' history of conflict, and the form of crisis outcome; nor were UN efforts successful in deterring f uture conflict. These sobering results suggest that changes in long-te rm strategy may be in order.