NUCLEAR FUTURE - A CASE OF METHOD BIAS

This study points out major errors in an article published in this jou rnal by Nitta and Yoda [1] tilled, ''Challenging the Human Crisis: The Trilemma.''' Nitta and Yoda forecast a nuclear future based on assump tions of a high energy demand, scarce oil reserves, and a low potentia l of renewable energy sources. The validity of these assumptions is an alyzed, and they are found inaccurate. Nitta and Yoda also use differe nt forecasting techniques for different technologies that encourage th e prospects of nuclear power and discourage the future of solar energy . No arguments are provided for the different choices of forecasting m ethods. When discussing future alternatives, the approach taken is of viral importance, because the method itself often affects the result. (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Inc.