LONG-RUN TRENDS IN NAIROBIS INFORMAL HOUSING-MARKET

This paper is an analysis of data on Nairobi's informal housing market since 1970. It is a study of the dynamics within this commercialised low-income housing market. These longitudinal data show, contrary to m any expectations, that rent levels have declined in real terms and tha t there has been no increase in overcrowding since 1980. Over the same period wages have also declined by a similar amount in real terms suc h that there has been an increase in urban poverty. The explanation of the trend in rent levels is the dramatic increase in informal housing provision and the simple inability of tenants to pay more.