INTEGRATION OF MARKOV AND LINEAR-PROGRAMMING MODELS TO ASSESS THE FARMGATE AND NATIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF ADOPTING NEW BOVINE REPRODUCTIVE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE UNITED-KINGDOM AGRICULTURE

Despite many advances in biotechnology being futuristic, in some indus tries such technological improvements are:now becoming generally avail able for absorption into commercial practice. The new reproductive tec hnologies for bovine animals are such an example. For a regulated indu stry like agriculture, an ex ante evaluation of the impact of their ad option is the concern of policy makers. This paper describes a modelli ng strategy devised to assess these impacts, using a sequence of stoch astic, financial and linear programming models. A set of individual fa rm type models were developed and later extended to a national model t o simulate the interactions that occur between dairy and beef enterpri ses and the competition between them for resources on individual farms . Restraints reflecting national policies such as quotas on milk produ ction and industry support through subsidies are built into the model to explore several scenarios. These models are used to assess the impa ct of new technologies on dairy and beef production nationally and for regions which have been identified by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fi sheries and Food.