DEVELOPMENT OF A MIOMBO WOODLAND DYNAMICS MODEL IN ZAMBEZIAN AFRICA USING MALAWI AS A CASE-STUDY

A patch model was developed to characterize the effects of climate on succession of miombo dry forests of Zambezian Africa using Malawi as a case study. The model, called MIOMBO, is based on the FORSKA Version 1 gap model of forest succession by Prentice and Leemans (1990). The F ORSKA model was modified to include the effects of moisture and fire; and how these affect processes of establishment, survival, growth and development. The impacts that four different GCM scenarios for a CO2 d oubling might have on dynamics of a number of miombo species were anal yzed. Preliminary results show a gradual increase in the basal area of the more mesic species. This result is consistent with what might be expected with increased precipitation. Tree growth and development dat a with associated detailed climatic data are lacking and severely limi t the ability to define quantitatively how species are influenced by g iven levels of environmental factors (such as climate and nutrient fac tors), and how they might respond to seasonal changes in climate varia bility.