Pv. Desanker, DEVELOPMENT OF A MIOMBO WOODLAND DYNAMICS MODEL IN ZAMBEZIAN AFRICA USING MALAWI AS A CASE-STUDY, Climatic change, 34(2), 1996, pp. 279-288
A patch model was developed to characterize the effects of climate on
succession of miombo dry forests of Zambezian Africa using Malawi as a
case study. The model, called MIOMBO, is based on the FORSKA Version
1 gap model of forest succession by Prentice and Leemans (1990). The F
ORSKA model was modified to include the effects of moisture and fire;
and how these affect processes of establishment, survival, growth and
development. The impacts that four different GCM scenarios for a CO2 d
oubling might have on dynamics of a number of miombo species were anal
yzed. Preliminary results show a gradual increase in the basal area of
the more mesic species. This result is consistent with what might be
expected with increased precipitation. Tree growth and development dat
a with associated detailed climatic data are lacking and severely limi
t the ability to define quantitatively how species are influenced by g
iven levels of environmental factors (such as climate and nutrient fac
tors), and how they might respond to seasonal changes in climate varia
bility.