Js. Clark et al., CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS OF BIOMASS BURNING SINCE THE 19TH-CENTURY IN EASTERN NORTH-AMERICA, Global change biology, 2(5), 1996, pp. 433-442
Recent predictions that tropospheric aerosols have counterbalanced gre
enhouse warming assume aerosol emissions were low before AD1850 and th
en increased dramatically with industrialization of the Northern Hemis
phere and biomass burning in the Tropics. We assembled the lake sedime
nt record of emissions across northeastern North America, where temper
atures are predicted to have been substantially affected by industrial
aerosols. Sediment evidence suggests a systematic shift in source and
an overall decline in emissions since the 19th century. The geographi
cal shift results from high presettlement emissions from wildfires in
the Midwest that collapsed with tillage and fire suppression. Meanwhil
e, emissions were increasing in the North-east with European settlemen
t. These regional changes produced a shift from the continental interi
or to the North-east. An overall decline results because decreases in
the Midwest more than compensate for increases in the North-east. Resu
lts suggest the Central Plains as an important source of emissions in
the recent past, consistent with pioneer accounts of dense smoke cloud
s emanating from prairie in the 19th century. Contrary to recent model
s that suggest increased 20th century combustion emissions could have
offset warming effects of rising greenhouse gases, our data suggest th
at aerosols could have actually decreased over this interval. Although
we cannot directly quantify aerosols from our methods, the emissions
of large particles suggest assumptions of 20th century aerosol decline
s should be reconsidered.