THE FUTURE AS ARBITER OF THEORETICAL CONTROVERSIES - PREDICTIONS, EXPLANATIONS AND THE END OF THE COLD-WAR

Some analysts assert that a failure by the discipline of international relations to predict the end of the Cold War reinforces their convict ion that predominant theories as well as systematic empirical analyses of international politics have proved fruitless. Accurate predictions are an important product of useful theory, partly because predictions cannot be modified in order to accommodate the events upon which they focus, since the outcomes to be accounted for are unknown. But predic tions are contingent statements about the future, not unconditional as sertions, which might more accurately be labelled prophecies. Three re lated streams of work - a political forecasting model that relies on r ational choice theory, insights and information provided by traditiona l area specialists, and democratic peace theory - together constitute an emerging basis for making accurate predictions about the political future, and deserve attention in any evaluation of the,utility of syst ematic empirical analyses of politics. Moreover, the systematic empiri cal approach is not entirely bereft crf potential to provide a better understanding of the end of the Cold War. The democratic peace proposi tion suggests that if the autocratic protagonist in a confrontation be comes more democratic, tensions should be significantly reduced. This implication of democratic peace did not go unnoticed in the years befo re the Cold War ended.