THE FUTURE OF THE NATIONAL LABORATORIES

The end of the Cold War has called into question the activities of the national laboratories and, more generally, the level of support now g iven to federal intramural research in the United States. This paper s eeks to analyze the potential role of the laboratories, with particula r attention to the possibility, an the one hand, of integrating privat e technology development into the laboratory's menu of activities and, on the other hand, of outsourcing traditional mission activities, We review the economic efficiency arguments for intramural research and t he political conditions that are likely to constrain the activities of the laboratories, and analyze the early history of programs intended to promote new technology. via cooperative agreements between the labo ratories and private industry, Our analysis suggests that the laborato ries are likely to shrink considerably in size, and that the federal g overnment faces a significant problem in deriding how to organize a do wnsizing of the federal research establishment.