DEFENSIVE PESSIMISM, OPTIMISM, AND SIMULATING ALTERNATIVES - SOME UPSAND DOWNS OF PREFACTUAL AND COUNTERFACTUAL THINKING

Four studies investigated the prefactual (alternative preoutcome predi ctions) and counterfactual (alternative postoutcome ''what might have beens'') mental simulations of defensive pessimists and optimists. In Study 1, defensive pessimists engaged in upward (better than expected) prefactual thinking, whereas optimists engaged in downward (worse tha n actuality) counterfactual thinking in reaction to a course exam. In Study 2, defensive pessimists preferred upward prefactual thinking and optimists preferred no prefactual thinking when prefactual thoughts w ere directly manipulated. In Studies 3 and 4, defensive pessimists and optimists differed in reactions to manipulated success and failure, a nd these reactions were further moderated by the opportunity to engage in prefactual thinking and the possibility of a second try. Individua l differences in strategies of prefactual and counterfactual thinking are discussed.