ESTIMATES OF OZONE DEPLETION AND SKIN-CANCER INCIDENCE TO EXAMINE THEVIENNA CONVENTION ACHIEVEMENTS

DEPLETION of the ozone layer has been observed on a global scale(1), a nd is probably related to halocarbon emissions, Ozone depletion increa ses the biologically harmful solar ultraviolet radiation reaching the surface of the Earth, which leads to a variety of adverse effects, inc luding an increase in the incidence of skin cancer. The 1985 Vienna Co nvention provided the framework for international restrictions on the production of ozone-depleting substances, The consequences of such res trictions have not yet been assessed in terms of effects avoided. Here we present a new method of estimating future excess skin cancer risks which is used to compare effects of a 'no restrictions' scenario with two restrictive scenarios specified under the Vienna Convention: the Montreal Protocol, and the much stricter Copenhagen Amendments, The no -restrictions and Montreal Protocol scenarios produce a runaway increa se in skin cancer incidence, up to a quadrupling and doubling, respect ively, by the year 2100. The Copenhagen Amendments scenario leads to a n ozone minimum around the year 2000, and a peak relative increase in incidence of skin cancer of almost 10% occurring 60 years later. These results demonstrate the importance of the international measures agre ed upon under the Vienna Convention.