H. Slaper et al., ESTIMATES OF OZONE DEPLETION AND SKIN-CANCER INCIDENCE TO EXAMINE THEVIENNA CONVENTION ACHIEVEMENTS, Nature, 384(6606), 1996, pp. 256-258
DEPLETION of the ozone layer has been observed on a global scale(1), a
nd is probably related to halocarbon emissions, Ozone depletion increa
ses the biologically harmful solar ultraviolet radiation reaching the
surface of the Earth, which leads to a variety of adverse effects, inc
luding an increase in the incidence of skin cancer. The 1985 Vienna Co
nvention provided the framework for international restrictions on the
production of ozone-depleting substances, The consequences of such res
trictions have not yet been assessed in terms of effects avoided. Here
we present a new method of estimating future excess skin cancer risks
which is used to compare effects of a 'no restrictions' scenario with
two restrictive scenarios specified under the Vienna Convention: the
Montreal Protocol, and the much stricter Copenhagen Amendments, The no
-restrictions and Montreal Protocol scenarios produce a runaway increa
se in skin cancer incidence, up to a quadrupling and doubling, respect
ively, by the year 2100. The Copenhagen Amendments scenario leads to a
n ozone minimum around the year 2000, and a peak relative increase in
incidence of skin cancer of almost 10% occurring 60 years later. These
results demonstrate the importance of the international measures agre
ed upon under the Vienna Convention.