SUGAR MARKET REPERCUSSIONS OF THE EU ENTR Y OF THE 10 CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

The entry of the ten central and east European countries (CEEC-10) int o the European Union is expected to reduce the quota surpluses on the EU sugar market by ca. 800,000 tonnes. Projections of CEEC and EU-15 p roduction and consumption were made to test this assumption. It was as sumed that the market regime would remain essentially unchanged on ent ry of the CEEC into the EU-15. Assuming CEEC production quotas in the year 2001 are set at 3.28mn tonnes, corresponding to average productio n in the five years prior to entry, and that per capita consumption st ays the same as in 1996/97, it is estimated that the surplus in the EU -25 is reduced by ca. 450,000 tonnes, or just 30%, in 2001/02, compare d with the situation in the EU-15. Because of higher total consumption due to population growth, the surplus is cut by ca. 550,000 tonnes in 2009/10. This is considerably less than the figure of 800,000 tonnes so far used by the EU Commission in preparing for CEEC accession. Seve ral alternative per capita consumption projections were introduced int o the calculations. In the event of a relatively small decline in cons umption by 7.5% in the CEEC and by 5% in the EU-15 between 1996/97 and 2001/02, the surplus would be reduced by only 8% in 2001/02. These co nditions, which could also arise in the short run in the wake of good harvest years, show that not too much relief should be expected on the sugar market from CEEC entry into the EU-15.