USE OF STATISTICAL-MODELS TO EVALUATE RACING PERFORMANCE IN THOROUGHBREDS

Objective-To develop a statistical model to evaluate the influence of specific parameters on racing performance in Thoroughbreds. Design-Sur vey. Sample Population-Racing records of Thoroughbreds performing in L ouisiana from 1981 to 1985. Procedure-Race results for 20 randomly sel ected days from 5 racetracks during 5 years were analyzed, using regre ssion analysis. Results-The most influential parameter was distance ra ced, There were significant differences in racing performance among ho rses at different tracks. At the tracks examined, fast racing surfaces resulted in significantly faster finish times than good racing surfac es, and good racing surfaces resulted in significantly faster finish t imes than muddy racing surfaces. Finish times also were significantly faster as a function of increasing purse amount and age of horse. Fini sh times were significantly faster during quarter 4 (summer) and signi ficantly slower during quarter 1 (fail). Races were run at significant ly faster times as the number of the race progressed during the day. T he finish times were significantly slower as the number of horses comp eting in the race increased, as the weight carried by the horse increa sed, and as the starting position away from the rail increased. Clinic al Implications-The coefficients used in the statistical model of this report may be used by researchers to compare before injury and after treatment finish times, The coefficients can be used to standardize pa st racing performances to uniform conditions, thus permitting comparis on from 1 race to another to determine success of treatments and to in form owners of prognosis.