FERTILITY IN ENGLAND AND WALES - A 50-YEAR PERSPECTIVE

This paper provides a detailed account of fertility levels and trends in England and Wales since 1938, with a briefer coverage of a much lon ger time-span. The paper is concerned both with the measurement of fer tility and with understanding the observed fertility behaviour. We lam ent and correct the failure of demographers to apply measurement tools available since the 1950s to the analysis of fertility in England and Wales, with a particular emphasis on adjustment of period measures an d period parity progression ratios and show how some of the grosser er rors of analysis and interpretation might have been avoided by earlier use of these approaches. We also relate these estimates to more recen t ones. Once a clearer account of trends has been established, the pap er goes on to reinterpret and explain the baby boom and baby bust. The conclusion looks at future prospects for fertility.