RISK-EVALUATION - CRITERIA ARISING FROM LEGAL TRADITIONS AND EXPERIENCE WITH QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE UNITED-STATES

Making use of quantitative estimates of risk involves sometimes painfu l choices about risk control options and ethical and social policies f or additional control and/or acceptance of remaining risks. Out of the history of these choices in the U.S., we have drawn four broad catego ries of risk control criteria: fair process, open disclosure and, to t he extent practicable, Voluntary acceptance of risk; equity (fairness) in the distribution of risks in relation to the benefits derived from accepting those risks; the greatest possible effectiveness of governm ental agencies in using limited resources to achieve health and safety goals ('Do the very best you can'); andthe principle of 'First, do no harm' from medical ethics. The first of these is entirely qualitative ; the last three can be informed by different kinds of quantitative an alyses. The analyses differ in the implications of variability and unc ertainty, among other factors. These suggested criteria should not be seen as a kind of formula to be programmed into a computer in place of human decision making. Rather, we hope they will contribute to an evo lving language that can accurately represent our advancing technical u nderstanding of the facts and frankly and compassionately convey our m aturing understanding of the relevant value questions.