AN ERROR COVARIANCE MODEL FOR SEA-SURFACE TOPOGRAPHY AND VELOCITY DERIVED FROM TOPEX POSEIDON ALTIMETRY/

In order to facilitate the use of satellite altimeter-derived sea surf ace topography and velocity in oceanographic models, a methodology is presented for deriving the total error covariance and its geographic d istribution from TOPEX/POSEIDON measurements. The model is formulated using a parametric model fit to the altimeter range observations. The topography and velocity are modeled with spherical harmonic expansions whose coefficients are found through optimal adjustment to the altime ter range residuals using Bayesian statistics. All other parameters, i ncluding the orbit, geoid, surface models, and range corrections are p rovided as unadjusted parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates and errors are derived from the probability density function of the altim eter range residuals conditioned with a priori information. Estimates of model errors for the unadjusted parameters are obtained from the TO PEX/POSEIDON postlaunch verification results and the error covariances for the orbit and the geoid, except for the ocean tides. The error in the ocean tides is modeled; first, as the difference between two glob al tide models and, second, as the correction to the present tide mode l, the correction derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON data. A formal error cov ariance propagation scheme is used to derive the total error. Our glob al total error estimate for the TOPEX/POSEIDON topography relative to the geoid for one 10-day period is found to be 11 cm RMS. When the err or in the geoid is removed, thereby providing an estimate of the time dependent error, the uncertainty in the topography is 3.5 cm RMS. This level of accuracy is consistent with direct comparisons of TOPEX/POSE IDON altimeter heights with tide gauge measurements at 28 stations. In addition, the error correlation length scales are derived globally in both east-west and north-south directions, which should prove useful for data assimilation. The largest error correlation length scales are found in the tropics. Errors in the velocity field are smallest in mi dlatitude regions; they are less than 2 cm/s over most of the Southern Ocean. For both variables the largest errors are caused by uncertaint y in the geoid. More accurate representations of the geoid await a ded icated geopotential satellite mission. Substantial improvements in the accuracy of ocean tide models are expected in the very near future fr om research with TOPEX/POSEIDON data. Consequently, estimates of the t ime dependent sea surface topography from TOPEX/POSEIDON could achieve a total uncertainty of less than 3 cm RMS. This level of accuracy fro m a spaceborne sensor represents a remarkable engineering achievement and a major contribution to ocean science.