STRATEGIES FOR SHIFTING TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS - THE CASE OF THE AUTOMOBILE SYSTEM

Californian and Dutch efforts to produce electric vehicles are explore d and compared. Three strategies are put forward that could turn elect ric vehicles from an elusive legend, a plaything, into a marketable pr oduct: technology forcing creating a market of early promises, experim ents geared towards niche development and upscaling (strategic niche m anagement), and the creation of new alliances (technological nexus) wh ich bring technology, the market, regulation and many other factors to gether. These strategies deployed in the Californian and Dutch context are analysed in detail to explore their relative strengths and weakne sses and to argue in the end that a combined use of all three will inc rease the chances that the dominant technological system will change. The successful workings of these strategies crucially depend on the co upling of the variation and selection processes, building blocks for a ny evolutionary theory of technical change. Evolutionary theory lacks understanding of these coupling processes. Building on recent insights from the sociology of technology, the authors propose a quasi-evoluti onary model which underpins the analysis of suggested strategies.