Death certification data has shown that death rates due to Paget's dis
ease of bone and osteosarcoma in older people (assumed to be attributa
ble to Paget's) declined in the latter part of the 19th and in the ear
ly 20th century, suggesting that there may be a secular trend toward l
ess severe disease. We have reviewed a 21 year experience in a clinic
specializing in Paget's disease. Data from all 1041 patients attending
the clinic in this period were reviewed. Despite an increase in the s
usceptible population and an increased rate of referral to the clinic
over this time (p = 0.012), there was a fall in the absolute numbers o
f patients referred with severe disease, as judged by the initial plas
ma alkaline phosphatase activity at presentation. In the years 1973-19
78 the initial plasma alkaline phosphatase was >500 U/L in an average
of 22 new patients per year and >1000 U/L in 12 per year. In the years
1988-1993, the figures were 12 and 3 per year, respectively. During t
his period, there were no other facilities offering scintigraphy or in
travenous treatment for Paget's disease in the Auckland region, making
it unlikely that patients with severe disease were being seen and tre
ated elsewhere. The average age of newly referred patients rose steadi
ly from a mean 62 years, in 1971-1973 to 71 years in 1991-1993 (p < 0.
001), 534 subjects had scintiscans (52%) from which the extent of skel
etal involvement was calculated. Skeletal involvement showed a signifi
cant negative correlation with year of birth (p < 0.01) but not with a
ge or year of presentation. The proportion of patients with >20% skele
tal involvement had fallen by a third in the cohort born after 1926, c
ompared to the cohort born before 1915. Our data demonstrate that, on
average, newly referred patients with Paget's disease have less severe
disease and are significantly older at diagnosis than was the case tw
o decades ago. (C) 1997 by Elsevier Science Inc.