THE SOPHOMORE SURGE - CONVERSION, MOBILIZATION, OR ABSTENTION

The incumbency advantage and its cause(s) is a question that political scientists have addressed for several years. This article looks at on e piece of the puzzle: the sophomore surge. Using the American Nationa l Election Panel Studies of 1956-1960 and 1972-1976, I examine three p ossible scenarios for the sophomore surge: conversion, mobilization, a nd abstention. The evidence presented herein supports the argument tha t first-term incumbents are able to win the votes of those who had sup ported the losing candidate in the previous election. It would appear that the source of the incumbency advantage is what the incumbents do in office, not the actions of their potential opponents.