P. Reding et Jm. Viaene, CAPITAL CONTROLS AND INTERNATIONAL-TRADE FINANCE IN A DUAL EXCHANGE-RATE REGIME - THE BELGIAN EXPERIENCE POSTMORTEM, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 131(1), 1995, pp. 1-27
The purpose of the paper is to model ''leads and lags'' capital flows
on the official segment of a dual exchange market and to examine the e
ffects of various types of capital controls imposed by authorities on
the official spot and forward exchange markets. The focus of the analy
sis is the degree of insulation provided by a ''dual exchange market c
um capital controls'' in face of a speculative crisis. The crucial var
iables in this respect are the deviation from covered interest parity
and the forward risk premium. Results of the theoretical model are con
fronted with empirical evidence over the 1975-85 period.