REFORMING HUNGARIAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE-POLICY - A QUANTITATIVE-EVALUATION

In this paper, the authors quantitatively assess the consequences for Hungary of: (i) removing its quantitative import restraints in agricul ture, (ii) removing the export subsidy program in agriculture, and (ii i) adopting an EU-type ''CAP'' system in Hungary. The consequences are estimated through the use of a small open economy computable general equilibrium model for Hungary, calibrated to the year 1990. The tariff equivalent of the import licenses was estimated through a detailed pr ice comparisons study, the first of its kind for Hungary. Import prote ction, export subsidies and a potential CAP system would contribute si gnificantly to the Government's fiscal problems.