STRIKING CHANGES IN SMOKING-BEHAVIOR AND LUNG-CANCER INCIDENCE BY HISTOLOGICAL TYPE IN SOUTHEAST NETHERLANDS, 1960-1991

Changes in lung cancer incidence in south-east Netherlands between 196 0 and 1991 were analysed, using data from the Eindhoven Cancer Registr y, and related to previous changes in smoking habits. Male lung cancer incidence rates increased markedly from birth cohorts 1890-1899 to 19 10-1919, followed by a decline. The peak incidences for both squamous cell carcinoma and small cell carcinoma were reached in 1978, while fo r adenocarcinoma it was 1985. A rising trend in female lung cancer inc idence up to 1988 was found for each successive birth cohort and for e very histological type. These changes in lung cancer incidence rates a re most likely related to the pattern of past smoking habits: the perc entage of male adult smokers in the southern part of the Netherlands d ecreased from 95% in 1960 to 40% in 1981 and the percentage of female adult smokers increased from 27% in 1960 to 40% in 1967, slightly decr easing only after 1979. In view of the trends in smoking behaviour, th e incidence rates for male lung cancer will decline further, whereas f emale lung cancer incidence may decrease after the year 2000.