TRADE-AFFECTED WORKERS - MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES COMPARED

In this study a combination of input-output and probit analysis is use d to identify the demographic characterstics of services and manufactu ring workers whose employment status is most likely to be favorably or unfavorably affected by a hypothetical change in net exports. The mai n finding is that while favorably affected manufacturing workers tend to be human-capital intensive the reverse is true for service workers. This finding conflicts with the extended Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson mo del of international trade which explains trade patterns by variations in factor endowments-including human capital-among regions.