PRESSURES, TRENDS, AND IMPACTS IN COASTAL ZONES - INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SOCIOECONOMIC AND NATURAL SYSTEMS

This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expe cted climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and fu ture socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external s tresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will t end to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coast al zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an inte rrelated set of planning failures including information, economic mark et, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of nat ural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty re mains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resourc e valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorpo rate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. Thi s would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall , a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning.