DETERMINANTS SURVIVAL - AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF AGE AT OBSERVATION AND LENGTH OF THE PREDICTIVE PERIOD

The main objective of this study was to analyze how the identification of determinants of survival is dependent on age at the rime of data c ollection and on the length of the predictive period. The study is par t of a gerontological and geriatric population investigation in Gotebo rg (Gothenburg), Sweden, called H70, which is a longitudinal study bas ed on a large random sample of men and women born in 1901/1902 in Gote borg. They were first examined at the age of 70, and have then been re -examined at the ages of 75 and 79. Twelve variables from different ar eas were selected for use in the present study. As physical health has proven to be highly correlated to survival, the sample was split into two subgroups. one consisting of elderly with few health problems and the other of less healthy elderly. All analyses were performed on eac h gender separately, and on the whole samples of men and women, respec tively, as well as on each health subgroup. The results show that the statistically significant determinants of survival differ substantiall y between the two subgroups. In addition, age at examination and lengt h of predictive period proved to be very important in identifying dete rminants of survival. Lung capacity. measured by peak flow, was the on ly variable, among those selected for this study, that had predictive power for both genders, in both health groups and at each of the three observation ages.