THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF OZONE ON MATERIALS IN THE UK

Recent reports have highlighted the potential damage caused to a range of media, including materials, by ozone (O-3) The limited data availa ble indicate significant damage to rubber products and surface coating s but either insignificant or unquantifiable damage to textiles and ot her polymeric materials at the range of atmospheric concentrations enc ountered in the U.K. Materials in the indoor environment have been exc luded from economic analyses. Legislation was put in place in 1993 in the U.K. in order to reduce NOx (NOx = NO + NO2) and VOC (volatile org anic compounds) emissions from motor vehicles which is likely to resul t in reduced peak O-3 episodes but increased average levels of O-3 in urban areas which may result in increased damage to materials. A detai led assessment of the costs of O-3 damage to materials is not currentl y possible because of insufficient information on relevant dose-respon se functions and the stock at risk. Alternative methods were thus adop ted to determine the potential scale of the problem. Scaling of U.S. e stimates made in the late 1960s provides a range for the U.K. of pound 170 million-pound 345 million yr(-1) in current terms. This includes damage to surface coatings and elastomers, and the cost of antiozonant protection applied to rubber goods. Independent estimates were made o f the costs of protecting rubber goods in the U.K. These were based on the size of the antiozonant market, and provide cost ranges of pound 25 million-pound 63 million yr(-1) to manufacturers and pound 25 milli on-pound 189 million yr(-1) to consumers. The only rubber goods for wh ich a damage estimate (not including protection costs) could be made w ere tyres, using data from the U.S.A. and information on annual tyre s ales in the U.K. A range of pound 0-pound 4 million yr(-1) was estimat ed. The cost of damage to other rubber goods could not be quantified b ecause of a lack of data on both the stock at risk and exposure-respon se functions. The effect of O-3 On the costs of repainting were estima ted under scenarios of increased urban concentrations of O-3 using dam age functions derived from the literature. The cost was estimated to b e in the range of pound 0-pound 60 million yr(-1) for a change from 15 to 20 ppb O-3, and pound 0 to pound 182 million yr(-1) for a change f rom 15 to 30 ppb O-3. The wide ranges derived for effects on surface c oatings are a reflection of the uncertainty associated with the dose-r esponse functions used.