Objective: To quantify the risk of axillary nodal metastases due to de
layed treatment of breast cancer during pregnancy. Methods: A mathemat
ical model using recently published data was developed to correlate pr
imary breast tumor size with the percentage of pathologically positive
axillary lymph nodes. Using this relationship obtained from pathologi
c data and the accepted relationship of tumor growth and time, Y-2 = Y
(1)e((ln2)n/DT), an equation estimating the increased risk of axillary
metastases due to each day of treatment delay was derived: Delta X =
3.7 n/DT, where X = percent positive axillary lymph nodes, n = number
of days delay in treatment, and DT = tumor doubling time. Results: A 1
-month delay in treatment for an early-stage primary breast cancer wit
h a 136-day doubling time increases the risk of axillary lymph node in
volvement by 0.9%. A 3-month delay increases the risk by 2.6% and a 6-
month delay by 5.1%. For breast cancer with a 65-day doubling time, a
1-month delay increase the risk by 1.8%, a 3-month delay by 5.2%, and
a 6-month delay by 10.2%. Conclusion: Axillary lymph nodes are the mos
t important prognostic indicator for survival in breast cancer. Our ma
thematical model suggests the daily increased risk bf axillary metasta
ses due to treatment delay is 0.028% for tumors with moderate doubling
times of 130 days and 0.057% for tumors with rapid doubling times of
65 days. This minimal maternal risk may be acceptable to some third-tr
imester pregnant women with early breast cancer, who prefer organ-spar
ing treatment with radiation after delivery to a mastectomy during pre
gnancy. This model further quantitates the increased risk of mortality
borne by pregnant women whose breast cancer diagnosis is delayed.