The objective of the work reported here is to ensure that ice-capable
ships are both safe and economical. It is largely based on research co
nducted over the past two decades. The present methodology allows the
designer to calculate a bow plating thickness which will resist local
ice loads and be cost-effective. Full-scale data for the MV Canmar Kig
oriak and USCGC Polar Sea were ranked, curves were fitted through the
tail of each data set, and a Type I extreme probability distribution w
as derived for each data set. The Canmar Kigoriak data were then subdi
vided based on contact area and a simulation was performed to derive t
he load distributions on subregions of the instrumented panel, termed
subpanels. On the basis of this analysis, a local ice load model was v
alidated and is used in the subsequent analysis. To evaluate the stren
gth of the bow plating, three limit stages (three-hinge collapse, perm
anent set, and membrane collapse) are considered. Statistical distribu
tions for each of the input parameters are established. The probabilit
y of failure is calculated for each limit state corresponding to a ran
ge of plate thicknesses, frame spacings, and annual numbers of impacts
, using First Order Reliability Method software. Plate thickness is op
timized for minimum cost. Minimum safety levels for permanent set and
membrane collapse are also specified. The objective function considers
costs due to construction, aesthetics, repair, and replacement. An em
pirical expression for the expected annual cost of damage is developed
. Optimum plating thicknesses are specified. Costs associated with los
t use of the vessel or increased steel weight can also be specified.