PROGNOSIS FACTORS IN PNEUMOCYSTIS-CARINII PNEUMONIA IN PATIENTS WITH AIDS

Objectives: Identify prognosis factors in Pneumocystis carinii pneumon ia at diagnosis and construct a model to predict mortality according t o these prognosis factors. Methods: Seventy-seven consecutive cases of proven AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (67 men, 10 women, mean age 37.2 years) were reviewed to determine the most accurate ini tial prognostic factors and estimate an individual prediction of death , A stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed, Three kinds o f data were entered into the logistic model: historical data, clinical and laboratory data obtained within the first 24 hours of diagnosis, and specific data related to chest X-ray and bronchoalveolar lavage re sults. Results: The sum of arterial partial pressure of oxygen and car bon dioxide (PaO2 + PaCO2) and serum albumin level best predicted a fa tal outcome in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: The logistic equatio n provided by the model might be used to accurately and quickly identi fy the patients with severe Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia who might b enefit from supportive intensive-care.