PUBLIC-OPINION, THE ATTITUDINAL MODEL AND SUPREME-COURT DECISION-MAKING - A MICROANALYTIC PERSPECTIVE

Recent aggregate-level research on the United States Supreme Court sug gests that shifting tides of public opinion can have important effects on Supreme Court decisions. Moreover, these effects can be both direc t (i.e., unmediated by other institutions) and indirect (i.e., mediate d through presidential elections and subsequent judicial appointments) . This research extends this inquiry by examining the influence of pub lic opinion on individual members of the Supreme Court during the peri od 1953-1992. Although the majority of justices during this period sho w little or no evidence of public opinion effects, a significant minor ity of justices show substantial effects. As predicted by social psych ological theories, the impact of public opinion is greatest among mode rate justices who are likely to hold critical swing positions on the C ourt. The effects of public opinion are in addition to significant age nda effects and suggest important refinements in the standard attitudi nal model of judicial decision making.