THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF EDUCATION AND EXPERIENCE TO FORECAST SKILL

An analysis of nine semesters of temperature and precipitation forecas ts at the State University of New York at Albany has been conducted wi th the goal of investigating the dependence of forecasting skill on ed ucation and experience. The results show that forecast skill is largel y determined by experience. The relative advantage of highly experienc ed forecasters is secured by virtue of the larger set of cases from wh ich they may draw upon: given a set of forecast information (e.g., moi sture, winds and cloud cover), such a forecaster is in a better positi on to maximize linear consistency between that information and the exp ected evolution of surface temperature and precipitation (given simila r conditions, make a similar forecast) than someone with less forecast ing experience. However, the experienced forecaster also gains substan tially by recognizing those instances in which these linear relationsh ips no longer apply and by forecasting accordingly. Such instances can often be recognized using simple rules. Consequently, there is a rapi d growth of skill with experience for initially inexperienced forecast ers; this progression continues through several clearly defined stages and reflects the forecaster's increased ability to implement these si mple forecasting strategies. The skill advantage of human forecasters over numerical guidance continues to diminish and now largely reflects the human ability to recognize occasional departures from the linear relationship between forecast information and future observations.