AN ASSESSMENT OF THE IRANIAN MILITARY REARMAMENT PROGRAM

Recent military equipment purchases (e.g., kilo-class submarines from the former Soviet Union, and Scud B/C missiles from North Korea) have focused attention on Iran's rearmament program. Concerns have been rai sed that this program has provided Iran with the capabilities needed t o achieve military hegemony in the Persian Gulf or the Middle East mor e generally. This article examines these concerns and seeks to correct some of the misconceptions that have led to an exaggeration of the re armament program's scale and importance. First, the nature of the prog ram is outlined, including threat perceptions, financial limits, milit ary imports, and domestic military production. Next, Iran's convention al military capabilities are compared with those of five other regiona l powers (Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Syria) for the period 1988-1992. This comparison is made from two perspectives: military de mands upon the financial and human resources of these societies; and, their respective theoretical ground force capabilities. Finally, Iran' s capabilities and intentions with respect to weapons of mass destruct ion are surveyed.