THE RUSSIAN-FEDERATION - POSSIBLE DISINTEGRATION SCENARIOS

The possibility that the Russian Federation may disintegrate like the Soviet Union has been the subject of much debate for the past 2 years. In the disintegration scenarios, the most critical factors usually ci ted include weakness and indecisiveness of the central authorities, di fferent economic conditions in the various regions and their diverse i nterests and priorities, the ambitions of local elites often drawn fro m the old nomenklatura, and ethnic and religious divisions. This artic le examines scenarios of ''explosion'' and ''implosion,'' that is, the process of disintegration beginning either at the country's center or in its provinces.