Longitudinal data from a community study of 9900 adults in the United
States show that persons with depressive symptoms, as compared to thos
e without such symptoms, were 4.4 times more likely to develop a first
onset major depression over one year. The attributable risk, a measur
e which reflects both the relative risk associated with depressive sym
ptoms (4.4) and the prevalence of exposure to that risk (24%) and is a
useful measure for documenting burden of a risk to the community, ind
icated that more than 50% of first onset major depressions are associa
ted with prior depressive symptoms. Since depressive symptoms have a h
igh prevalence in the community, but are often unrecognized and untrea
ted in clinical practice, we conclude that their identification and th
e development of effective treatments could have public health implica
tions for the prevention of associated social morbidity, service utili
zation and major depression.