WHAT FORECASTS (SEEM TO) MEAN

A forecast is just the set of probabilities attached to a set of futur e events. In order to understand a forecast, all one needs to do is to interpret those two bits of information. Unfortunately, there are pit falls to communicating each element, so that the user of a forecast un derstands what its producer means. One source of potential problems is ambiguity regarding the event being predicted and what exactly is bei ng said about it. Another is the difficulty of determining the relevan ce of the problem that the forecaster has solved for the problem that the user is facing. Problems can also arise out of epistemological and sociological issues of trust and context. A simple framework is offer ed for considering these communication problems and is then illustrate d with a mixture of systematic data and anecdotal observation. The cri ticality of these different problems is considered, along with procedu res that might reduce them.