LATE FORECASTS AND EARLY REVISIONS OF UNITED-STATES GNP

We consider a sequence of four-monthly predictions and estimates of qu arterly U.S. real gross national product. The late forecasts are relea sed in the final month of a quarter, and an initial estimate and two s ubsequent revisions are published in the following three months. The q uestion of efficiency is analyzed through considering the earlier figu res as forecasts of this last number. The strongest indication of inef ficiency appears in a nonlinear relationship between the third publish ed number and each of the two previously reported estimates.