MODELING THE INTERREGIONAL DISEASE SPREAD

In this paper, models to describe the inter-regional plant disease spr ead are derived based on the so-called power law model. Two cases of t he inter-regional spread are considered. One is that the disease sprea d from a single source region, the other is that it spreads from multi ple source regions. Conditioned to a favorable synoptic process across the related territory, these models can be used to predict the diseas e intensity on susceptible cultivars after a latent period in the depo sition region. Eight data sets of inter-regional wheat stripe rust spr ead in China are used to illustrate our single source interregional di sease spread model.