COLLEGE ENTRY BY BLACKS SINCE 1970 - THE ROLE OF COLLEGE COSTS, FAMILY BACKGROUND, AND THE RETURNS TO EDUCATION

College enrollment of black 18-19-year-old high school graduates decli ned from 1980 through 1984 and then rebounded after 1984. This paper p resents data from a time series of cross sections of 18-19-year-old yo uths from 1973 through 1988 to test the role of family background, dir ect college costs, local economic conditions, and returns to college i n driving these trends. The evidence suggests that, on the one hand, i ncreases in direct college costs were driving enrollment rates downwar d throughout the eighties. On the other hand, dramatic increases in av erage parental education for black youths exerted upward pressure on c ollege enrollment by blacks, particularly in the latter half of the de cade. The net effect of these two factors contributed to the pattern o f decline and recovery observed during the eighties.