HAS THE GREEN-REVOLUTION BEEN SUSTAINED - THE QUANTITATIVE IMPACT OF THE SEED-FERTILIZER REVOLUTION IN PAKISTAN REVISITED

Quantitative impacts of the Green Revolution on food production in the Punjab of Pakistan are reviewed and the effects of different technolo gies on wheat yields over the past two decades decomposed. New quantit ative evidence of sustainability problems in irrigated systems is pres ented. The yield increases expected in the post-Green Revolution perio d from the further spread of modern wheat varieties, a tripling of fer tilizer dosage, and the release of newer higher yielding varieties hav e been cancelled by problems resulting from increased cropping intensi ty, use of poor quality groundwater, low fertilizer efficiency, and in creased weed and disease losses. New directions in institutional polic ies and research and extension strategies are outlined to improve effi ciency and sustainability in wheat production and prevent Pakistan fro m becoming a major food grain importer in the coming decades.