Ga. Hamoud et al., RELIANCE ON NONUTILITY GENERATION IN PLANNING CUSTOMER DELIVERY SYSTEMS, IEEE transactions on power systems, 9(4), 1994, pp. 1795-1802
This paper describes a probabilistic approach for determining the port
ion of Non-Utility Generation capacity. (NUG ''Credit''). that can be
relied on as a firm resource when assessing the adequacy of the Ontari
o Hydro customer delivery system. The proposed method is based on the
criterion that the reliability of supply to the customers on the deliv
ery system should not be affected by the addition of a NUG to that sys
tem. Calculations to determine the reliability level consider the syst
em load profile, system contingencies, the lend forecast and its uncer
tainty, the NUG size and the NUG forced outage rate as well as the unc
ertainty of the in-service date of new facilities. Sensitivity studies
are conducted to determine the factors that largely affect the NUG cr
edit. The paper also presents an approximate method for estimating the
NUG credit. The method is simple and easy to apply and does not requi
re the detailed calculations of the exact method. A comparison of the
exact and approximate methods is illustrated using some numerical exam
ples.