THE USE OF PROBABILITY TECHNIQUES IN VALUE-BASED PLANNING

Present techniques used in value-based planning do not properly repres ent neither the durations of capacity outage nor the effects of outage on post-interruption demand. Generation outage models do not relate t he expected quantum of shortages to particular durations of outage. A model is proposed to compute this expectation by using the generator o utage statistics in its entirety. The application of this model to the IEEE test system gave different results, depending on which outage co st data were used. Consequently, there is a need for a uniform procedu re to report outage costs. A ''bottom-up'' procedure based on end use is proposed as a possibility.