ESTIMATING POPULAR SUPPORT FOR GROUP DECISION OUTCOMES - AN ANCHORINGAND ADJUSTMENT MODEL

Two experiments explored the process by which people judge the magnitu de of popular support for group decision outcomes. We proposed that pe rceivers first anchor their judgments of support on a moderately extre me value (roughly 65% support) and then adjust for situational constra ints on the group decision process. Experiment 1 provided evidence for the anchoring component of the model, demonstrating that perceivers e stimate an average of 65% support when they no longer can recall the a ctual magnitude of support. Experiment 2 tested the adjustment compone nt of the model, employing an experimental manipulation (cognitive bus yness) that we theorized would affect people's ability to correct thei r anchored judgments in response to situational constraints. As predic ted, cognitively busy subjects were less able to adjust their 65% supp ort judgments than were their nonbusy counterparts. We discuss the imp lications of these findings for theory and research on social inferenc e.