VERIFICATION OF A NESTED BAROTROPIC HURRICANE TRACK FORECAST MODEL (VICBAR)

A nested analysis and barotropic hurricane track forecast model(VICBAR ) was run for tropical cyclone cases in the North Atlantic basin durin g the 1989-93 hurricane seasons. VICBAR is compared to the other opera tional hurricane track forecast models and is shown to perform as well as each of these. VICBAR forecasts are stratified by initial date, in tensity, and location to assess the variability of model performance. VICBAR produces the best forecasts for hurricane cases, for cases init iated earliest in the hurricane season, for cases moving the most slow ly northward, and for those moving westward. The forecasts with the la rgest errors are examined to illustrate the limitations of the model a nd to determine whether these cases can be identified operationally.