A UNIVERSAL MODEL OF ANTIBODY PREDICTION (MAP) OF TYPE-1 DIABETES IN CHILDREN

The majority of children who develop Type 1 diabetes under the age of 10-years-old show islet cell antibodies at levels of 40 or more units. Those who have lower levels (10-<40) usually have co-existent insulin autoantibodies. Of these children 85% have these criteria. When these criteria were applied to large groups of similarly aged children who were either first degree relatives of a type 1 diabetic or had no such family history, 3.8% and 0.38% respectively showed these criteria. Th e observed sensitivity of these characteristics in identifying childre n who develop diabetes in the subsequent 5 years is 79% for both group s. The calculated expected incidence of disease in the subsequent 10 y ears for these two groups is 2.15% and 0.215% respectively. This model of autoantibody prediction of diabetes in children thus applies equal ly well in terms of sensitivity and specificity to those with and with out a family history of diabetes.