MODELING THE INTERACTION OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIOBEHAVIORAL FACTORS IN THE PREDICTION OF FARM ADJUSTMENT

This paper describes a methodology for the representation of farm hous ehold decision-making under conditions of agricultural and rural polic y change. The methodology employs a Geographic Information System (GIS ) to integrate a range of spatially referenced data describing the int ernal and external decision environments of individual farmers, and mo del the interaction of these variables in conditioning adjustment in r esponse to policy change. The difficulties in identifying and represen ting the derailed interaction of farm and farmer characteristics with the external environment of the household and business are reviewed. F rom a policy perspective it is? however, of considerable importance th at models which are sensitive to the complexity of the farm decision-m aking process are developed and evaluated, for their potential contrib ution in supporting policy and resource allocation decisions is consid erable. The methodology described here remains highly generalized, but it represents an advance on previous techniques through the represent ation of economic, social and behavioural factors which interact with farm resources and external constraints to predict the response of ind ividual farm holdings to policy and market shifts. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd