ESTIMATION OF CORROSION ON CARBON-STEEL TRU WASTE DRUMS USING THE POISSON-DISTRIBUTION

The number of container failures due to corrosion is estimated as a fu nction of time for 55-gallon painted carbon steel drums under earthen cover. The calculations are performed using an empirical statistical m odel that assumes that the corrosion depths are given by a Poisson pro bability distribution parameterized by an average corrosion rate. Unce rtainties in the average corrosion rate for both pitting and general c orrosion are addressed, as is uncertainty in the drum wall thickness. Times for specific fractions of the population of drums to breach can be estimated in a manner that incorporates uncertainties in the corros ion process. To improve corrosion predictions, it is recommended that more data on the corrosion of carbon steel drums under earthen cover b e collected in the future.