What enthusiasts took for a global rush to democracy may be reversing
direction, with backsliding and stalled transitions in the former Sovi
et Union, Africa, the Middle East. So far, one sees disarray or new st
rongmen much like the old; no competing ideologies seem to be beckonin
g. Market reforms have not been the cause in most cases. More affluent
countries with Western ties seem to be sticking the course better. Ho
wever the trend plays out, it should lead the administration to rethin
k democracy promotion. The truth is that U.S. policy is not significan
tly responsible for democracy's advance or retreat in the world.