TRACKING AND PREDICTIVENESS OF SERUM-LIPID AND LIPOPROTEIN MEASUREMENTS IN CHILDHOOD - A 12-YEAR FOLLOW-UP - THE CARDIOVASCULAR RISK IN YOUNG FINNS STUDY

The authors analyzed tracking and predictiveness of serum lipid and li poprotein measurements in Finnish children and young adults over a 12- year follow-up period. A representative sample of 3,596 healthy subjec ts aged 3-18 years was examined in 1980. The follow-up studies were do ne in 1983, 1986, 1989, and 1992. Data were available on serum lipids and lipoproteins, anthropometric measurements, dietary and smoking hab its, and use of oral contraceptives. Complete data on serum lipids in 1980 and 1992 were available for 883 subjects (47% males), and they co mprised the study cohort for this analysis. Significant tracking was f ound in each of the serum lipid variables studied. The range of 12-yea r correlations was 0.48-0.58, 0.53-0.58, 0.53-0.58, 0.57-0.59, and 0.3 3-0.37 for serum total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein (LDL) chol esterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, the LDL:HDL chole sterol ratio, and triglycerides, respectively. Males showed more track ing than females; there was no clear age trend. Tracking of HDL, chole sterol was better than that of HDL(3) cholesterol (0.64 vs. 0.43, resp ectively; 3-year tracking). Apolipoproteins A-l and B showed similar a mounts of tracking compared with HDL and LDL cholesterol, respectively . Approximately 50% of subjects who initially fell into the extreme qu intiles of total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol wer e in the same quintiles after 12 years. In multiple regression analyse s, childhood obesity, exercise, diet, and smoking habits did not marke dly aid the prediction of adult serum lipid values. However, the use o f two childhood measurements increased the amount of adult serum lipid variability explained. Although universal screening cannot be endorse d, these findings emphasize the importance of serum lipid measurements in the early detection of familiar lipoprotein disorders and in the i nitial evaluation of coronary heart disease risk in childhood.