PREDICTABILITY OF REHOSPITALIZATION FOR SCHIZOPHRENIA

This analysis examines tile predictability of the course of schizophre nia using long-term follow-up data on hospital episodes in a cohort of patients from a psychiatric case register in Denmark. We focus on whe ther clinical and sociodemographic data collected during the first epi sode are related to the number of hospitalizations during follow-up an d the association of patients' course of hospitalizations with the ris k of being rehospitalized. A Poisson regression model and a proportion al hazards model were used to address these questions. Age of onset an d time to the first rehospitalization were strong early predictors of chronicity of course, as measured by the number of psychiatric hospita lizations for each schizophrenic patient. The results also show that t he risk of rehospitalization depends on the previous tenures in the co mmunity.